GONE FISHIN'

Posting will be sparse, I have a new military adventure in progress . . .

Good times.

In the FATA and NWFP areas of Pakistan: tribes are awakening to the threat the Taliban pose to their way of life. Moderate Muslim clerics have backed the Pakistani Army offensive, and many tribes are forming militias to help fight the Taliban. Even once vocal supporters have turned against them following the bombing of a mosque.





In Lebanon: the March 14th Coalition appears to have won a decisive victory in the Lebanese elections. Analysts had been suggesting, and polls indicating, that a Hezbollah-Christian coalition was posied to sweep into power. But it now appears that the pro-western March 14th Coalition has won enough seats to remain in power.




We now have to work with the Pakistani military and intelligence services to capitalize on the recent turn in events and surging momentum against the Taliban. And the Lebanese now face the struggle of putting together a working government, hopefully with fewer assassinations and car bombings than last time . . .

Combined with the Congress Party's enormous success in India in recent elections there, things have been going pretty well for moderates throughout the world. (Aside from in Europe, but who cares about that socially stagnant place?)

Why China won't be more proactive in punishing North Korea

China has entered into a devils bargain with North Korea. Whenever you hear about the Chinese government doing this or that, I want you to think of one word: "Stability." The Chinese are obsessed with stability because they need continuous economic growth to have any chance at surviving their demographic transition to an elderly population. For this reason, China always takes the most cautious approach when it comes to anything. If the party thought they could transition to democracy tomorrow without destabilizing the country, they would do it. But they believe (probably correctly, at least for the next decade or so) a significant state hand in guiding business and politics is the only way to ensure that their economy is able to provide for their population.

So when it comes to North Korea, they prop up the regime not out of some brotherly support or commitment, but because a failed state bordering them is unacceptable. And a failed state is exactly what North Korea would be without Chinese aid. They look down on Kim Jong-il and his cronies, his state is a constant reminder of the failures of Maoist agricultural policies, something the Chinese themselves moved past decades ago. When the most recent nuke test was conducted, every market in the region save Japan took a hit. China wants that cash money, and the only reason that they tolerate Kim's shenanigans cutting into their bottom line, is because cutting him off would hurt them even more.

Now if China does have influence on North Korean behavior, we can pressure China into calming Kim's ass down or quietly getting rid of him altogether by convincing the world that only China can change North Korea's behavior (true, barring a VERY unlikely US military intervention) therefore China is responsible for North Korea, and must act to prevent instability in the region. Essentially, every time North Korea does something, start blaming China for not actively working to stop them. Kind of like how people blame the US every time Israel does something they don't like.

But I fear that especially now with a leadership transition taking place even China has far less influence in the region than they let on. The real reason for all the sabre rattling, is quite simply to help strengthen the leadership during the succession. Kim Jong-il now has a visible droop (see picture above) on his left side from the stroke. They're afraid that they might appear weak to the outside world, and more importantly, to their domestic audience. And in the middle of a transition to Kim Jong-un, this cannot stand.

China realizes that an open and reunified Korean peninsula is in everyone's interests. After all, who wants a potential nuclear conflict next door to them? But they don't really know how to make that happen, and neither do we. It will happen the day that the US and China finally come to the realization that only by working together can they accomplish all the things they want to in the coming century.