Thursday, September 25, 2008

On Georgia

One quick note on the recent conflict in Georgia, while many people see this as the collapse of the Core-Gap theory of expanding Globalization, I think it is telling that despite the fact that Georgia is a clear ally of the United States, at no point did we ever offer military support against Russia. Regardless of who you see as the provocateur in that conflict, and I will be quick to point out that Georgian democracy is at best, wanting, the fact is that the Cold War military dynamic with Russia hasn't changed. They still have nukes. If we do have a conflict with Russia, it will once again be by proxy. And the constabulary force is better suited to such a conflict. The only nations we can reasonably expect to go to war with on their own territory, (whether perceived or actual) are those without nuclear weapons. Hence why I include the non-nuclear caveat in my force sizing argument. The only way to persuade a nuclear enabled state at an acceptable cost is to use diplomacy to bring them into the international system, economics to undermine the base of their power. Remember Putin's soul? It looked a lot better before oil went above $100 a barrel.

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