Our Supranational World . . .

The Supranational World, an estimate of the global map in 2020, by moi.

With global trade talks somewhat stalled and trade protectionism on the rise, much to the chargin of anyone familiar with economics or the history of recessions, I wonder if regional trade organizations will take a front seat for the next 5-10 years or so until the US can get back on track as a leader in spreading the global community.

While coordinated global action is important, especially from groups like the G-20, regional organizations have an advantage in that the danger of sudden exposure to the global economy is lessened by first having to compete on a regional level.  Countries that share borders also tend to share other economic and political interests, making faster coordination and integration possible.  

I also think building such organizations should be a primary US foreign policy tool, rogue regimes are much less likely to continue their shennanigans when they have to answer to their regional partners rather than just the Great Imperialist Power.  It's hard to deny, for example, that the Southern African countries have been able to exert more influence than the US in Zimbabwe.

Iran - admittance to either the Gulf Cooperation Council or the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation could be a powerful carrot to regulate Iranian behavior through economic sanctions or free trade.

North Korea - would be hard pressed not to accept access to a not yet existant East Asian Economic Community.  The Chinese and South Koreans would both put a lot of pressure on them to lower their isolationist stance.

Cuba - admittance to CariCom in exchange for Human Rights improvements . . .