A SOFA, not a love seat.

As most people in the foreign policy community expected, there wasn't much daylight between the President's plan and the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) already hammered out between the Bush Administration and the Iraqi government.

I am still concerned by the rush by a great many smart people to jump on the bandwagon regarding expectations of Iraq's security situation over the next year and a half or so.  Everyone is making the assumption that the situation will continue to improve or stay roughly the same.  Certainly, this is the most likely scenario.  But what if security rapidly deteriorates?  Especially if it does so in a direct correlation with troop level reductions, the war started under the previous administrations will now be the current administration's to lose.  There are all kinds of very possible, if improbable, scenarios regarding large scale ethnic cleansing, accommodation of radicalists who use Iraq as a base to strike at moderate regimes throughout the region, etc

I'm not saying the withdrawal timeline is a bad idea.  I think in a war among the people, it is vital that the people are aware of the broad strokes of the strategy, if not the operational details.  Iraqi public opinion and US public opinion are bound together with regards to withdrawal.  As Thomas P.M. Barnett is fond of saying, victory in Iraq will have been achieved when they vote to kick us out.  All I'm saying is, if there is one vital lesson about Iraq, its that hope is not a plan.  We need a strategy in place if things go bad.